To: POL 245- American Foreign Policy
From: Jackie McLaughlin, Jacky Davis, Shannon Sylvester, Hayden Ball, and Jack Herndon
Date: March 17, 2019
RE: The United States and the Ukrainian Conflict
Executive Summary
In March 2014, the Russian annexation of Crimea sparked the formal Ukraine-Russia conflict that has complicated the role of NATO and European relations. Although this conflict did not erupt until 2014, this European-Russian tension litters Ukraine’s history with Ukraine’s and more specifically Crimea’s deep ties to Russia. Particularly, in 1954, Nikita Krushchev granted Crimea-- formerly part of Russia-- to Ukraine. Thus, even after Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Crimea maintains cultural and linguistic ties to Russia that complicate the relationship between these two countries as some Ukrainians prefer to align themselves with NATO and the European powers while others identify with Russia.
Because Ukraine finds itself divided between these two camps with alternating pro-European and pro-Russian presidents and serves such a crucial geographical role as a buffer between Russia and the NATO member states, NATO powers have struggled to determine how best to respond to the conflict or whether to respond at all. The United States’ complex and contentious history with Russia as well as its role as a world superpower puts it in a particularly complicated position to either support Ukrainian sovereignty and entrance into NATO or ignore the conflict in order to maintain relations and power dynamics with Russia. According to a 2018 US State Department fact sheet, the US “aims to support the development of a stable, democratic, prosperous, and free Ukraine, fully integrated into the Euro-Atlantic community”; however, questions remain over the exact course of action the US should take moving forward with this frozen conflict.
Budapest Memorandum
In 1994, The Budapest Memorandum was signed by The United States, The Russian Federation, The United Kingdom, and Northern Ireland. The goal of the act was to protect Ukraine and respect their sovereignty in return for their status as a non-nuclear-weapon state. In the event that a situation arose regarding national security, the text states the countries would consult one another. Since the annexation of Crimea, the validity of the memorandum has been in question. While Russia is infringing upon Ukraine, there is a serious gray area. Barry Kellman, professor of law and director of the International Weapons Control Center at DePaul University's College of Law stated that, “It is binding in international law, but that doesn't mean it has any means of enforcement” (Synowitz, web). The problem with the text and the argument for Russia is that they are not threatening Ukraine with nuclear weapons. The cornerstone of the memorandum was non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and less so protection of invasion in the manner that Russia proceeded. However, an argument can be made that Russia is in violation because the text includes respect to borders and independence. Since the annexation, the US has provided Ukraine with economic support and non lethal assistance. While Russia has more of an interest in Ukraine than the US does, it is imperative that they continue and accelerate support, this will legitimize international security treaties and prevent Russia from being able to disregard future treaties.
Ukraine, Russia, and NATO
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. Since its founding in 1949, many have problems with the way NATO is handling certain foreign conflicts and is also concerned with spending in regards to the United States. However, when it comes to NATO and their relationship with Ukraine, Ukraine is not a member of the organization and many politicians debate whether or not it is in the organization’s best interest to interfere altogether. Many ask: Is NATO doing enough to pressure Russia over Ukraine? A number of people believe they should get involved with the conflict due to Russia’s involvement in cyber-attacks on the country, as well as the tampering they had with Ukraine’s elections. However, many people believe this would be against the rules of NATO since Ukraine is not involved with the alliance and therefore should not be the course of action. There is always the concern with Russia, and if NATO interferes many argue the situation would escalate. After both Minsk Agreements, many believe that NATO forces could help pressure both countries to stick to the agreement and work on rehabilitation, but this is a risk and many argue it is not worth it. Also, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and power grab in eastern Ukraine more than 5 years ago was a shock to NATO’s system.
Ukrainian Crisis and the Growing Humanitarian Crisis
Ukraine is a state in dire need of aid. After the daily shellings through Russia’s attempt to grab at power, the Ukrainian citizens are the ones paying the price. The humanitarian crisis in Ukraine has affected 4.4 million people. With unstable daily livelihoods, controlled by the fear of survival, the Ukrainian government is struggling to provide its people with the resources and aid they desperately need. Eastern Ukraine is most susceptible to targeted assaults by the Russian forces and while the conflict is at all standstill currently, the eastern Ukrainian people are still picking up the pieces. Some of these targeted assaults comes from the direct shelling of 160 healthcare facilities by the Russian government. Since the beginning of 2018 the United States has provided nearly $2.5 million in humanitarian assistance to the eastern Ukrainian civilians. Since the start of this conflict nearly 2,500 people have been killed, 9,000 have been injured, 1.5 million have been displaced from their homes, and 1.2 million face food insecurities all as a repercussion of this conflict. International aid organizations like the Red Cross and the World Health Organization have contributed to aid those most affected by this conflict but the situation is still poor. The necessity for this aid and resources to arrive safely in the hands of these organizations to be disbursed is unprecedented. Russian and/or pro-Russian militants in the area are trying to intercept this aid and thus keep the region in a state of instability. Until this humanitarian crisis is addressed, political and personal instability in this region will continue to flourish.
Potential Course of Action for the US in the Ukraine
In its present state, the Ukrainian conflict represents a double-edged sword for the United States, on one hand, the conflict presents the problem of Russia upsetting the European balance of power by pushing its borders into Ukraine. While on the other it presents the problem of alienating US relations with Russia which have long remained a delicate situation for both countries. Although the US should for the sake of its European allies attempt to curb the extent of Russia’s control it should also remember that by doing so there is the risk of alienating one of the key superpowers in the world. Regarding, Ukraine joining NATO this would likely prove the ultimate blow towards US and Russian with Russia consistently being opposed to the prospect as it would then be perceived that one NATO member would be attacking another. Potentially causing an upset in the international relations realm. Although it is unlikely that either country would start WWIII over a region as small as Ukraine, however an escalation of forces between the United States and Russia is the last thing the world needs given the current fragility of international politics.
Work Cited
Maxwell, Mary Jane. “Eastern Ukraine’s Accelerating Humanitarian Crisis.” Share America. 10 August 2018. https://share.america.gov/eastern-ukraines-accelerating-humanitarian-crisis/
Pifer, Steven. “The Budapest Memorandum and U.S. Obligations.” Brookings, Brookings, 29 July 2016, www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/12/04/the-budapest-memorandum-and-u-s-obligations/.
Synovitz, Ron. “Explainer: The Budapest Memorandum And Its Relevance To Crimea.” RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, 28 Feb. 2014, www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-explainer-budapest-memorandum/25280502.html.
“Ukraine Profile - Timeline.” BBC News, BBC, 7 Mar. 2019, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18010123.
“Ukraine.” U.S. Department of State, U.S. Department of State, 12 Apr. 2018, www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3211.htm.
Schultz, Teri. “NATO doing enough to pressure Russia over Ukraine.” Deutche Welle, 11 Jul. 2017, https://www.dw.com/en/is-nato-doing-enough-to-pressure-russia-over-ukraine/a-41286391
In light of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, I think it was important that the blog mentioned the precarious relationship the US shares with both countries. On one hand, Russia is a very dominant world power that controls a large portion of Europe’s fuel (American allies) and therefore requires walking on eggshells nearby. On the other hand, we see Ukraine struggling to join NATO as Russia tightens its hold on neighboring States, leaving Ukraine stranded without their own dominant world power allies. Making steps in the right direction to create peace between Russia and Ukraine and to then start the process of joining NATO have been somewhat fruitless. In the Budapest Memorandum, a plan of protecting the Ukrainian sovereignty was created but fell apart with a loop hole Russia found. The US and other NATO allies need to realize that Russia will only ever follow through by having sanctions or threats that are strong enough to make Russia respect the deal(s) struck by NATO. The US alone is not the answer for they were involved in the Budapest Memorandum.
ReplyDeleteThe Russia Ukraine conflict is an extremely interesting case. Russia has been using their power to control the country in many ways. More recently there have been conflicts through water ways caused by Russia which inflict higher tensions between the two countries. With Ukraine wanting to join NATO this puts pressure on Russia which would ultimately loose their control over the territory. Along with the US, both France and Germany have neglected to take part in this conflict, fearing they could potentially be hurt from the backlash. As many look to the US to step in and take control over the tension could only hurt Ukraine even more. Ultimately, this was a very informative memo and allowed for me to gain a stronger understanding of the conflict at hand. Only in time will we see this problem get better or worse. As of now it is very uncertain of what the outcome will be.
ReplyDeleteOwen de Graaf
Due to Ukraine's humanitarian crisis, World Health Organization and Red Cross is providing aid but it is not enough. Although the United States could step in I agree that although there are pros in taking action there are also consequences. In addition, regarding the cyber attacks there will be an increase tension if NATO steps in because Ukraine has not joined NATO. While reading your memo I was able to clearly understand the pros and consequences of the United States and NATO taking action. Overall I enjoyed reading your memo.
ReplyDelete- Glendy Alvarez
This memo did a great job conveying the relevance of the Ukrainian Crisis and its importance in foreign policy. The section on humanitarian crisis was especially interesting. It conveyed how essential humanitarian aid is right now, yet it is not being provided fast enough. When it is being provided Russia and the US are at odds when blocking the aid the US is trying to provide. Russia tries to defend its actions in other countries by saying ethnic Russian live there. If ethnic Russians live there than why block the humanitarian aid being brought to them? This goes to the deeper issue of the importance of humanitarian aid during crises. What is more important: the lives of these human beings or political gains? Would things change if Ukraine was a member of NATO? How would Russia react to this?
ReplyDeleteYour memo did a good job of analyzing the roots of the conflict and depicting the historical beginnings of this tension in the 1990s. I have not heard of the Budapest Memorandum before. Your memo also did a good job of giving potential future options to the US in dealing with this crisis. I agree that the conflict of Crimea alone would not start a wider war but you could have conceded that, if Ukraine goes on to be a member of NATO and Russia conducts a similar land grab in the future, NATO countries including the US would be legally obligated to defend Ukrainian territory.
ReplyDelete-Adam Miller
I think the memo went into depth on an issue we discussed a lot about in class during another group's discussant. I liked that your group focused on the humanitarian issue surrounding Russia's interference in Ukraine. Like we discussed in class, I do not think this issue will be easily solved and it will not end any time soon. I believe it is very difficult to describe a particular course of action for the US because the issue is so unpredictable that everything is just mere speculation.
ReplyDeleteOverall I thought this was a great memo that included a lot of valuable information analyzing the roots of the Ukraine conflict and how they have evolved into the situation we see today. One thing I would focus on is your executive summary; while it was valuable to include the historical information in the beginning of your memo, I also would have liked to see is more of a description about the subheadings that followed. Doing so would ensure that your subheadings have clear connections and create an easy to follow argument, thus strengthening your memo.
ReplyDeleteI think you summarized the problem international organizations are currently faced when deciding on getting involved in the crisis. The events seem to check enough boxes that an argument for NATO to get involved can be made but does not explicitly cross a line that NATO drew that would force them to enter the crisis. I think it would be interesting to look into how international organizations like NATO react to Pro-Russian forces intercepting humanitarian aid and possible actions they could conduct in response.
ReplyDeleteYour group did a very good job covering this issue. The humanitarian aid in this region is a very relevant issue and one that must be carefully taken care of. I think that it is interesting to see whether NATO will decide to step in or will continue to stay more out of the way as Russia continues its aggression.
ReplyDeleteThe memo did a great job of explaining the historical context to the Ukraine - Russia conflict. I thought it was a great choice to include the section about the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine because it demonstrates how detrimental this conflict is on the Ukrainian people. Regarding the course of actions section, I agree that this situation presents a challenge for deciding on whether the U.S. should get involved. As was discussed in class, it is difficult to say whether the U.S. will get involved in Ukraine because many consequences could occur. U.S. involvement could cause the Ukraine-Russia conflict to escalate even more and cause tensions to rise in the region. The humanitarian crisis that is happening, however, warrants that some action should be taken in order to help the people in Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteThe memo did an outstanding job at covering the current issue in Ukraine. Like you all had said, the United States is in a difficult situation in regards to the course of action available. Obviously the United States doesn't want to escalate the conflict and tensions in the region even more, but the humanitarian crisis that is occurring must not be overlooked by the US and NATO. It is important to note though that the United States does not want to damage relations with Russia. It will be interesting to see what NATO decides.
ReplyDeleteThis memo does a great job of highlighting the crisis between Ukraine and Russia. I really enjoyed how the memo discussed the previous issues, and how the tension is playing a role in the conflict today. I think the humanitarian crisis is an enormous issue that desperately needs more attention. The lack of aid Ukraine is receiving is unacceptable and more organizations, and countries need to start helping to ensure the aid is not intercepted by the Russians. The memo also acknowledged how the U.S interference in the conflict might cause more unneeded issues, and described both sides of the U.S interference as it is vital to understand the dangers of both sides.
ReplyDeleteI think this is a well constructed memo and it hits on a lot of the concerns that are raised in terms of Russia meddling in the affairs of Ukraine. It is clear that Russia is trying to assert themselves as a legitimate superpower in the world by making the move to annex Crimea but the US and NATO seem to be involved in a complicated manner. The US might gain from assisting Ukraine's elections that will occur and ensuring that they are not doctored by Russia. It is clear that Russian meddling in elections has occurred in the US so it is not far fetched to assume that they intercede in the Ukrainian elections. The only role the US should have in this situation, in my opinion, is to ensure that whatever the Ukrainian population chooses in their elections is not influenced by Russia. This would set an important precedent for what the US values and Russia may see this and understand that the US does not sit idly by when elections are meddled with.
ReplyDeleteI enjoyed reading this memo, especially the section on the humanitarian crisis, which I think was an important aspect to include when talking about this conflict. I find it appalling that Russia is causing much of this violence, targeting healthcare centers, and trying to intercept the vital humanitarian assistance that Ukrainian locals require to survive. I think the US and international organizations such as the Red Cross are doing the right think in providing this aid to those effected by the conflict. I also think your group did a great job in highlighting the complexity and fragility of the issue, and what the "next steps" should be. Providing humanitarian aid is vitally important, but the main goal is to resolve the conflict, and due to power dynamics and ethnic ties, you explained how a resolution is a complicated thing to create. I believe that it would be beneficial for Ukraine to become a NATO member, but I also think it's difficult to foresee how Russia will react and the extent of their reaction, which could lead to many more humanitarian crises down the road.
ReplyDeleteWhen talking about the conflict of Ukraine I did really appreciate the background with the The Budapest Memorandum. Learning it was signed by The United States, The Russian Federation, The United Kingdom, and Northern Ireland. The goal of the act was to protect Ukraine and respect their sovereignty in return for their status as a non-nuclear-weapon state helped me understand the United States role within the conflict. Going forward and what is most important to me is that the Ukraine is a state in dire need of aid. After the daily shelling through Russia’s attempt to grab at power, the Ukrainian citizens are the ones paying the price. The humanitarian crisis in Ukraine has affected 4.4 million people. This is the most important piece of the memo and that we care about the people first. Group did a great job with this memo.
ReplyDeleteJoslyn janeczek
Good summary. I also think you hit on the key issue which is that incorporating Ukraine into NATO would likely produce an escalatory spiral between the Alliance and Russia, which would be damaging to American security. However, allowing Russia to coerce Ukraine and impinge on its sovereignty is not desirable either, at the very least, due to the manner in which it challenges the implicit norms which underpin international relations.
ReplyDelete