To: POL 245- American Foreign Policy
From: Jackie McLaughlin, Jacky Davis, Shannon Sylvester, Hayden Ball, and Jack Herndon
Date: March 31, 2019
RE: Current Situation in Venezuela
Executive Summary
Currently, in Venezuela, there are a number of pressing issues creating political disarray both nationally and internationally. First and foremost, there is a leadership crisis - the dictator of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, who succeeded Fidel Castro after his death in 2013, has been replaced by Juan Guaidó as of January 23, 2019. Maduro, who ruled Venezuela as a dictator in the Fifth Republic Movement/United Socialist Party, was highly disliked by the citizens of Venezuela while Guaidó was a popular politician. Another added layer to the crisis in Venezuela is the country’s ties to Russia. Rosneft, a large Russian oil company, is one of the largest business endeavors in Venezuela. Both Rosneft and Putin are political allies with Maduro, causing international disarray due to his dismissal as President of Venezuela. Both the leadership chaos in Venezuela as well as the disorderly connection with Russia, the state of Venezuela is a large global foreign policy issue and should be dealt with accordingly. Given this conflict as well as humanitarian crises in the country, the United States must be strategic in their efforts to alleviate the situation, especially while the Trump Administration is in close ties with Russia and Vladimir Putin.
Presidential Crisis
At the center of the Venezuelan crisis lies the question of presidential legitimacy as both Maduro-- the man at the helm at the onset of the crisis-- and the opposition leader and former head of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó has declared himself the rightful president of Venezuela. Guaidó argues that because the 2018 elections were not free and fair, Maduro is not the legitimate president and as head of the National Assembly, he constitutionally fills the presidency. Although the United States and many other countries recognized Maduro as president of Venezuela, as the economic and humanitarian crisis has deepened, they instead recognized Guaidó as the legitimate president of Venezuela. Without either side willing to cede power to the other, Venezuela remains locked in this battle of presidential legitimacy-- some like poorer Venezuelans still support Maduro, but Guaidó has successfully garnered popular support that has resulted in a widespread political protest against the Maduro regime. While foreign countries have recognized Guaidó, Venezuela still finds itself at a crossroads: Is Maduro the legitimate president despite the protests and electoral manipulation? Does Guaidó’s ascension to power then constitute a coup or does he legitimately possess power through a presidential vacancy? With Guaidó’s latest promise of delivering humanitarian aid, Maduro feels more threatened as the power struggle continues to unravel.
Russian Ties
The relationship between Venezuela and Russia is complex and has changed over the years. Russia has invested heavily in Venezuela, and recently the reasoning has been politically motivated. When Putin came to power, his goals were to provide public and privately owned companies in Russia with business in Venezuela, as well as engaging the country along with other areas of Latin America in an attempt to create anti-US sentiment. Putin was partly successful, the anti-US sentiment was common in South America, especially Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. Chavez gave Putin his undying support through many questionable acts made by the Russian government. The good days were short-lived however, corruption and a declining economy led to many of the Russian companies to pull out of Venezuela. Today, the Russian oil company, Rosneft is the largest remaining business venture in Venezuela. Rosneft and Putin have been avid supporters of Maduro, providing economic and military support to combat US involvement and to test President Trump. This is not the first time Putin has aggravated the US in this manner, Crimea and Syria are great examples of that. Putin is essentially doing what is expected of him, causing trouble in an area that the US has an interest in, and keeping himself relevant on the world stage.
Refugee Protection & Humanitarian Crisis
With the political and economic upset, the Venezuelan people are feeling the brunt of the consequences with a quickly growing humanitarian crisis. Starting with the economic disruption, inflation in Venezuela has increased more than one million percent in the last year. This drastic increase has caused the price of goods to skyrocket, leaving the people to suffer to afford basic necessities. In fact, “Poverty has gone from 48.4 percent in 2014 to 91 percent in 2017” creating an even broader gap between the few wealthy and the rest of the nation (Escobari). The direct response to inflation is also followed by mass-malnutrition and involuntary weight loss in 6 out of every 10 Venezuelans in the last year. However, this inflation is affecting more than simply the produce market, it is also affecting the access to other basic and extra necessities. These necessities could be anything from access to medication or vaccines to prevent against diseases or payment for protection or housing and so much more. With this economic and political instability there comes a sense of “lawlessness” in the country. Venezuela is now one of the most dangerous countries in the world with over “26,000 violent deaths in one year” (Escobari). The current government is also responsible for “over 40 deaths in the least month” as well. Ultimately, the instability stemming from Maduro’s regime and the protests against it are causing a trickle-down effect and the Venezuelan citizens are footing the bill.
Policy Suggestions for the United States
Given the previous interventions of the US in South America, particularly in the Cold War and Post Cold War eras, the US should handle the situation with delicacy in order to prevent previous catastrophes such as those in Chile and Guatemala which resulted in countless lives being lost due to poor intervention. Further, the US needs to understand that the situation is both politically and economically unstable due to the current regime and the rampant economic failure that has. Whereas on the political side of the situation, Maduro still has the full backing of the military which could potentially lead to a hostile escalation instead of a peaceful transition into the regime of Guaido. In moving forward the US must recognize again the necessity for near surgical precision in dealing with the conflict as putting Venezuela although even more conflict may prove poorly for the US. The US further must also prevent Venezuela from falling further as the risk involved in having a failed country so close to American borders would prove.
Work Cited
“Venezuela in Crisis: All the Latest Updates.” News | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 30 Mar. 2019, www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/venezuela-crisis-latest-updates-190123205835912.html.
Londoño, Ernesto. “Guaidó Steers Venezuela to a Perilous Crossroads.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 4 Feb. 2019, www.nytimes.com/2019/02/03/world/americas/guaido-venezuela-maduro.html?module=inline.
Press, Associated. “Venezuela's Guaido Makes New Promise to Deliver Aid.” POLITICO, 29 Mar. 2019, www.politico.com/story/2019/03/29/venezuela-guaido-aid-delivery-1243852.
Fisher, Max. “Who Is Venezuela's Legitimate President? A Messy Dispute, Explained.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 5 Feb. 2019, www.nytimes.com/2019/02/04/world/americas/venezuela-maduro-guaido-legitimate.html
Neuman, William, and Nicholas Casey. “Venezuela Election Won by Maduro Amid Widespread Disillusionment.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 21 May 2018, www.nytimes.com/2018/05/20/world/americas/venezuela-election.html?module=inline.
Board, The Editorial. “Opinion | Putin Pulls a Syria in Venezuela.” The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Company, 29 Mar. 2019, www.wsj.com/articles/putin-pulls-a-syria-in-venezuela-11553901531.
Rouvinski, Vladimir. “Russian-Venezuelan Relations at a Crossroads.” Wilsoncenter.org, Feb. 2019, www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/russia-venezuela_report_rouvinski_final.pdf.
This was a good post and you did a great job highlighting the Russian interference that currently exists in Venezuela. Initially this was just a democratic state being abused by someone who wants power (Modero). Adding in Rosneft and ties with Putin, the issue becomes more of an ally issue, potentially adding a substantial threat to the US. Considering the attempts to create anti-US sentiment in Latin America, the US should take a substantial look at this new threat. With the new Russian intervention on one end of the conflict, Venezuelan’s are suffering at the other. Offering aid is helpful for the time being but to fix the long-term issue the US needs to intervene more. Rather than waiting for every crisis to occur (from Russia’s or Modero’s doing) to then be followed up by US help, the US can save money and lives by intervening now and hlpe create a better democracy.
ReplyDeleteOverall I thought this was a well-written and researched memo that emphasized a facet of the Venezuelan conflict that has typically been overlooked. This post highlights some questions we have been discussing this semester: whether the United States has an obligation as a world power to aid states consumed by conflict and whether it is in our interest to ally with states before rising powers such as Russia or China have the opportunity. Overall it is important to consider what is best for Venezuelans before taking action; if a direct U.S. response will incite Maduro's forces against innocent citizens, it is in everyone's best interest to explore other diplomatic channels. Similarly, if it is known that Venezuelans will suffer from Russian business endeavors, the United States should counter these actions with investments and aid packages of their own.
ReplyDeleteThis memo did a good job of separating the complex issue into manageable sections that flow in a logical order. It also did a good job of calling attention to Russian involvement within the conflict. An unstable Venezuela is worrisome enough without Russian influence and their backing of Maduro. It would be also interesting to see more discussion of Venezuela's state sovereignty versus other countries's right to protect civilians hurt by harsh regimes. I liked how you referred to the many examples that Professor Buckman taught us regarding the history of many american-backed coups in the region.
ReplyDelete-Adam Miller
This memo was very well written and researched! It did a great job in outlining why this is such a complicated issue, and I found the section on Russia to be very informative. This section also emphasized why the US should take even more caution in any intervention operation it has planned. For US policy suggestions, I am wondering, what your group thinks about the US physically intervening in Venezuela, and if so, what does that look like? I guess the first step would be identifying a legitimate president and government, which the US has done by accepting Guaido as the official President of Venezuela, but where does everything go from here? Should the US be more or less involved with the humanitarian crisis happening right now? Overall, great job!
ReplyDeleteOwen de Graaf-
ReplyDeleteThis was a very strong Memo and did an excellent job at discussing the issue at hand. The problem that Venezuela is facing seems to be very real and must be fixed. As the transition of the new president came about we saw many different changes that ultimately affected the country. For the US it is somewhat on them to step in and ensure that this issue isn't being over looked and they are making sure the country does not fall farther then where they are currently at.
This memo did a great job with background information and elaborating on the severity of the political, social, and economic instability in Venezuela. The group did a great job highlighting the fact that the leaders battle for power is not just impacting the two leaders, but also their citizens and even other countries. The people of Venezuela are being affected everyday. Power is being shut off for days at a time and hot water is not being provided to the people. There's always the question of legitimacy and whether the acquisition of power is legitimate. But who gets to decide that? Is it the people who participated in the election? Is it the nominees for the political positions? Both?
ReplyDeleteThe memo did a good job of breaking down the complex situation into manageable pieces. I especially liked the section regarding Russia because it shows how much of a major player they are in eradicating Maduro. One question I have is why would poor citizens support Maduro? Venezuela is currently facing a major humanitarian crisis on pretty much all fronts and it is leading to many citizens fleeing. Wouldn't most of the poorer citizens be pro-reform to try to see change happen in their country?
ReplyDeleteLearning about Venezuela was very interesting and frutisating for me because after reading this I got so annoyed about how people in the United States take advantage of free and fair elections by not signing up. I was interested in the fact that at the center of the Venezuelan crisis lies the question of presidential legitimacy as both Maduro-- the man at the helm at the onset of the crisis-- and the opposition leader and former head of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó has declared himself the rightful president of Venezuela. Guaidó argues that because the 2018 elections were not free and fair, Maduro is not the legitimate president . I think the role of leadership is definitely important along with a peaceful transfer of power therefore I found these elections a key problem that needs to be fixed. Group did a great job with this memo I was very impressed.
ReplyDeleteJoslyn janeczek
The memo was well written and thoughtfully organized. I especially found the section on Russian ties to Venezuela to be very interesting because it shows how much influence Russia has in Latin America. Similarly, the memo did a great job of explaining the economic and humanitarian crisis that this issue has produced. I would have liked the memo, however, to go into greater depth about why some poorer Venezuelans still support Maduro. As for U.S. involvement in the country, it is hard to say whether the U.S. should get involved, but it is crucial that the U.S. remain aware of what is occurring because of Russian involvement in the country and overall U.S. interests. I do agree therefore with your point that the U.S. should look at all its options and critically analyze the potential outcomes of their actions.
ReplyDeleteThis memo did an excellent job of explaining the complicated situation in Venezuela. The memo did a great job of explaining the background information needed to know the current situation in the region. Before reading this memo, I never knew of the relationship between Russia and Venezuela. It is essential to address the ties to Russia, and how that causes issues for the United States. I agree with the policy recommendations that the United States should proceed with caution when trying to help the situation due to the U.S's previous issues with interventions. The most critical aspect is to solve the humanitarian crisis that is occurring in the region, but then the question arises who's responsibility is it?
ReplyDeleteYou are right to note that Venezuela must be handled with delicacy, however I wish you would clarify what "near surgical precision" entails and how the U.S. would go about doing. Unfortunately, I do not think that the policymakers in Washington have that ability to do anything quite so sophisticated. Would the U.S. assassinate Maduro? Would marines land on the beaches of Caracas to assure his ousting, as the United States did with Panama? Should the U.S. impose a no-fly zone?
ReplyDeleteAlso: "First and foremost, there is a leadership crisis - the dictator of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, who succeeded Fidel Castro after his death in 2013, has been replaced by Juan Guaidó as of January 23, 2019." This is inaccurate. Fidel Castro was President of Cuba - a Venezuelan ally - before he died in 2016. Maduro succeeds Hugo Chavez, who died in 2013. Nor would I say that Guaido has replaced Maduro quite yet; Maduro remains in administrative control of the country.
The situation is Venezuela is certainly complex. I found your summary effective in pulling out the most important issues currently gripping the country. Perhaps the most alarming issue you raised was the poverty rate hitting 91% in 2017. This economical issues seem to exacerbate the other other problems in the country by creating more people in a desperate situation. However I question if the US is the country to fix these issues. As you stated in your blog the US has a poor track record in getting involved in this area. Perhaps it would be better for the US to take a less direct position in helping Venezuela by assisting another country or countries in creating a stable environment.
ReplyDeleteI enjoyed reading this memo since it drew upon my group's earlier memo but focused on topics we did not cover. I agree with you that the presidential crisis in Venezuela must be approached with caution since there are millions of people who will be greatly impacted by the outcome of this situation. If this situation remains unstable I think it will require foreign involvement in order to be remedied.
ReplyDelete